A tactical revolution? How the Big Four have changed

Much has been made of the many comings and goings at the ‘Big Four’ clubs throughout a summer full of signings and speculation. The Premier League title is destined, however, for the team which makes the most of their resources, whether massive or relatively meagre. Personnel, motivation – and luck – are all important factors, of course, but countless points will be won and lost on the pre-game chalkboard.

The relative importance of tactical systems is debated long and hard by so-called students of the game, and, from Harry Redknapp’s successful “keep it simple and enjoy your football” mantra to Arsene Wenger’s relentlessly analytical approach, the pros differ wildly in their methods too. It’s undeniable, though, that there has been a significant tactical shift at the top table of English football between this season and last.

Starting with the defending champions, whose hand has been forced by the much-hyped loss of their free-scoring talisman, Cristiano Ronaldo, early season outings have seen Manchester United reclaim their beloved (but long-estranged) formation: the classic 4-4-2. Ronnie’s departure, allied to that of Carlos Tévez, has necessitated a switch from Sir Alex’s patented ‘strikerless’ set-up to a more orthodox approach. United often exhilarated spectators and overwhelmed lesser opposition, during their golden run of the past three years, with a fluid forward line of Rooney, Ronaldo and A.N.Other. Michael Owen’s arrival means that the manager will, more often than not, adopt a flattish midfield four incorporating two wingers from Nani, Valencia, Park, and, in due course, Obertan and Tošić.

Wayne Rooney, therefore, will shoulder the burden of responsibility for both goalscoring and goalmaking, alongside Owen or Berbatov. The evidence so far suggests that reining-in the multi-talented forward’s excessive workrate outwith his new penalty-box remit will be more difficult than first considered.

It is, these days, something of an anomaly to operate a simple two-man central midfield partnership too. Can Carrick and co. still influence games in the same way as before, especially when taking into account the continuing physical decline of old stagers Giggs and Scholes? All told, it is difficult to see United, barring late investment in the squad, dictating to the Premier League minions in quite the same manner as before.

Old rivals Arsenal, meanwhile, have made alterations with an eye on suffocating those opponents that stubbornly refuse to roll over upon mere sight of pretty passing football. In other words: Bolton and Blackburn. In order to turn over their Lancastrian nemeses (and other sides of their ilk), manager Arsène Wenger has in fact borrowed (just a little) from Gary Megson’s team.

Though he’d hardly admit it, the right-sided role that Wenger has thrust Nicklas Bendtner into of late echoes that of Bolton warhorse Kevin Davies – one of the league’s most quietly feared opponents – in seasons past. While the big Dane’s physicality is minimal by comparison with Davies, his presence in the new-look three-man Arsenal front-line draws defensive attention away from the mercurial talents of Robin van Persie and, particularly, Andrei Arshavin.

Wenger explains: “I want to play high up the pitch and bring the threat to the opponents half very early in the game. We are an attacking team and that gives us an opportunity to show our character.”

This plan worked to tremendous effect at Goodison Park last weekend, but doubts persist over whether the Alsatian’s slavish adherence to the beautiful game in its purest form can realistically yield a first league title since 2004. Much will depend on the consistency and continuing development of Cesc Fabregas’ midfield cohorts; Alexandre Song and Denilson. If that pair can form an effective shield in front of an already impressive Gallas-Vermaelen defensive axis, the Gunners might prove more than just also-rans this year.

To finish as relatively close runners-up last year was something of a breakthrough for Rafa Benítez’s Liverpool. To then lose one of their most consistent and able performers from that campaign might be considered careless if it weren’t for the sheer scale of Xabi Alonso’s new employers’ ruthless ambition. Thirty million big ones is an impressive haul, some would say, for a deep-lying midfielder with a shamefully weak goal/assist record. However, the technical prowess and vision offered by Real Madrid’s new no.22 was crucial in the delicate tactical balance which held together the 4-2-3-1 line-up favoured by Benitez.

Notwithstanding the possible impact of energetic Roman midfielder Alberto Aquilani on the Merseysiders’ fortunes, there’s no doubt that they have lost a significant dimension to their play. The over-reliance on Steven Gerrard’s freakish blend of athleticism and finesse, and on Fernando Torres as the point of attack (Andrii Voronin might have returned from a brilliant loan spell in Berlin with greater confidence, but still lacks a little star quality) means that Liverpool will inevitably struggle to maintain their momentum.

While a significant departure has placed Benítez in something of a tactical quandary, title rivals Chelsea will surely benefit from continuity of key personnel. The latest head coach along the Stamford Bridge production line, Carlo Ancelotti, has brought with him from Milan a narrow midfield structure; latterly used by a certain Jose Mourinho. The Blues’ abundance of able central midfield players lends itself to such a ‘diamond’ formation, it’s true. The absence of orthodox wingers from the XI, however, brings with it serious limitations.

One of the main beneficiaries of the switch, Michael Ballack has played the old “you can play any system with good players” card in recent interviews. Tellingly, the 32-year-old has conceded Ancelotti’s preferred option has as many cons as pros: “You gain a small advantage through the centre but there's more hard work for the four midfielders because they have a lot of work to do on and off the ball in this system,” said Ballack.

Quite where this approach will leave the likes of resurgent Florent Malouda, expensive new-boy Yuri Zhirkov and the returning Joe Cole is for Carletto to know and the King’s Road hordes to find out. At least the Premier League’s most frightening front two – Anelka and Drogba – can both be accommodated within the new framework. At the Stadium of Light this week, near-forgotten Deco was given a chance in support of Drogba, showing a certain flexibility in Ancelotti’s thinking. It is for this reason that Chelsea can produce their most cogent title push since the departure of their one-time tactical tsar, Mourinho.

Of course, it’s too early in the season to fully assess the impact (and longevity) of these changes, but it will be fascinating to see how events unfold on the chalkboard as the season develops.

To tinker with a winning formula exhibits bravery, for there’s the risk it can all go horribly wrong – witness Martin O’Neill’s switch to 4-4-2 spectacularly de-railing Aston Villa last term; beware Harry Redknapp, who has spoken of altering his hitherto winning formula by adding a third man to the Tottenham front-line.

For those who gamble and win? Well, they’ll be lionised as tactical geniuses forevermore. Well, at least until their next cock-up. 4-5-1 at home to Stoke!? What were you thinking?

What next for shattered Aston Villa?

Taken with archetypal Roman confidence, young Federico Macheda’s exquisite later-than-late goal at once re-established Manchester United’s dominance in the title race and thrust a dagger deep into the fading heart of Aston Villa’s season. In the second minute of stoppage time came the cruellest of blows – Villa’s hard-earned 2-1 advantage was finally overturned with a swaggering swish of the teenage Italian’s right boot. Was this the moment the Midlands side conceded defeat in the chase for fourth place?

Well, of course not. Publically, Martin O’Neill will not make a concession to that effect, but it’s been clear to all and sundry that Villa’s Champions League challenge faded quite some time ago. In taking the hotly-debated decision to rest a host of first-teamers for the difficult UEFA Cup 2^nd leg tie with CSKA Moscow, the Villa manager had on his hands a team that were no longer mildly-fatigued winners, rather dog-tired losers. The momentum which had been gradually building since Intertoto duty kicked off their season at the height of summer was irretrievably lost.

Round about this time too, a telling piece of TV production (occasionally it happens) highlighted the rising tide against which Villa’s tiring troops were battling. As the magical skills of Andrei Arshavin were beginning to re-ignite the Gunners’ waning goal-making - and taking - prowess following their lengthy lean patch in front of goal, the camera panned along the line of upcoming Arsenal returnees. Theo Walcott, Cesc Fabregas and Eduardo da Silva were all among a benchful of world class talent, each on the verge of a return from one long-term injury or other. It was an ominous signal that the North London club were ready to kick out of the stupor which had dogged their season.

Villa have quite patently been unable to compete with such impressive strength in depth, and understandably so; because they have not been party to continued Champions League ‘financial doping’ (a term Arsene Wenger used about mega-rich club owners such as Roman Abramovich having a distortive effect on the game, but which can easily be applied to the current Champions League cartel). The wafer-thin squad of the Second City side was supplemented only by Emile Heskey (who has unfortunately been largely MIA since his debut goal at Fratton Park) during the January transfer window. Rather than speculating to accumulate, O’Neill stuck steadfastly with his hand and subsequently went bust. At the time, it must be said, few fans complained about the lack of recruitment.

Successive defeats culminating in Sunday afternoon’s unlucky – if somehow inevitable; given United’s prodigious injury-time goalscoring record – loss at Old Trafford have again drawn a harsh light on the limitations of the squad. Without defensive lynchpin Martin Laursen, the back four – too often featuring Nigel Reo-Coker as a fish-out-of-water right-back and Mr Consistency, Luke Young, deputising for Freddie Bouma at left-back – has been sieve-like. The switch to 4-4-2 in order to accommodate their new England centre forward saw the counter-attacking menace of the previously preferred 4-5-1 significantly diluted.

For some time now, the more pragmatic Villa fan has been glancing down the table at surging Everton rather than dreaming of gate-crashing the Champions League party. The Toffees are one of the few clubs to have usurped the big four’s hegemony in the past decade and, led by the exceptional David Moyes – one of Martin O’Neill’s few equals or superiors in the Premier League – their recent form is enough to suggest that it is they that should now be favourites for fifth.

As the New Year rolled around and the tightly-packed table promised a dramatic conclusion to events at either end of the league, there was much talk of a refreshing shift in the static Premier League hierarchy – with Villa at the vanguard of the uprising. It looks unlikely now that such a change will transpire: United are probable champions; Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal cruise along behind. Even at the bottom, a previously intoxicating survival battle is fast losing its allure – at least for the neutral. It’s still possible (though unlikely, given Stoke’s outstanding home form) that the three promoted clubs could slip back into the Championship and the status quo would then be well and truly restored.

Following that logic, many would have pencilled in Everton and Villa battling it out for Europa League entry and so it has turned out. The two sides meet at Villa Park next week with the momentum inexorably in Everton’s corner. For Martin O’Neill’s men, the game has the feel of make or break – a defeat here would finally concede Villa’s dearly-held ‘best of the rest’ tag to the Merseysiders.

Gareth Barry’s future destiny again looms on the agenda like a long-feared dentist’s appointment – though let’s hope any ensuing saga doesn’t drag on as painfully as last summer’s snore-athon. This year, Stillian Petrov’s contribution to the Villans’ engine room has matched, even surpassed, that of the England star. Yet to lose their talisman – and longest-serving player – would be a shattering blow to the hopes of a club with fast-rising ambition. So far, progress under O’Neill’s guidance has been admirable. Whether or not the Ulsterman can now lead his team up another level will define the success, or otherwise, of his Villa Park reign.

Is Arshavin the man to rouse erratic Arsenal?

Zenit St Petersburg general director Maxim Mitrofanov claimed yesterday that talks are on-going with Arsenal over the potential move of their prized asset, Andrei Arshavin, to the Emirates Stadium. Some sources have it that Arshavin has already visited London with a view to wrapping up one of this season’s most tedious transfer sagas.

It seems a deal is imminent. So is it a move that can revitalise Arsenal’s flagging title challenge, or is this impending transaction too high-risk and somewhat ill-advised given the evident shortcomings of the Gunners’ squad? In short: is Andrei Arshavin really the right man to rouse Arsene’s Arsenal?

YES

Arsene Wenger admitted to French TV channel Canal Plus last month that he wanted to secure the services of a creative midfielder during this transfer window. Following last weekend’s FA Cup victory over Plymouth he said: “What I want, if we do add somebody, is someone who can create a little spark.”

“If the right player comes in, even if he is not available for the Champions’ League, the class is more important. Players like (Aaron) Ramsey, of course they still show lapses, through lack of experience.”

He concluded: “In the Premier League now, you need to be really a man.”

It’s implicit, then, that an experienced, inspirational talent such as Arshavin would be a more than welcome arrival at Ashburton Grove. And rightly so.

Signing a technically adept, innovative playmaker might not seem an immediately obvious response to a campaign characterised by defensive lapses and a lack of engine room fortitude. However, it is a typically Wenger-esque solution to his team’s exasperating form of late. Just look at one of his previous expensive winter purchases – José Antonio Reyes.

OK, so in the long-run that deal didn’t work out for the best, but the impetus of Reyes’ arrival from Sevilla helped the Gunners along to their ‘perfect’ 2003/04 title. Arshavin would have his hands full trying to steer Arsenal to top spot this time around, but could make all the difference in the battle, with Aston Villa, for a precious Champions League spot.

It’s a move that would also relieve the creative burden which falls heavily upon the slim shoulders of Ramsey, Nasri, et al, in the continuing absence of talisman Cesc Fabregas, Theo Walcott and Tomas Rosicky. It is the little Czech midfielder who stands to lose out from this move, but few fans will shed a tear should his inconsistent, injury-riddled stay at the Emirates be terminated come the summer. Like Rosicky, Arshavin is not a frequent goalscorer, but will weigh in with his fair share and create at least twice as many for others. In his best year to date, 2007, he notched up 15 goals and a remarkable 25 assists in 46 league and European games.

Those harbouring doubts whether the player can adapt to the relentless rigours of English football need only cast their eye across North London towards Spurs’ Roman Pavlyuchenko – the major protagonist behind the Lilywhites’ run to within touching distance of the Carling Cup final. The striker was not an immediate success, but his numerous qualities have become all the more apparent in recent weeks. Should he finally arrive, Arshavin must similarly be given time to acclimatise.

One recurring complaint about the proposed deal is the financial aspect. Zenit are holding out for a fee in the region of £20m, to be paid in full. Yet, when you consider that Arsenal alumnus David Bentley – a gifted, but essentially superfluous performer – cost Tottenham £17m last summer, Arshavin should certainly command such a sum. In any case, the eventual price will surely be less, with Zenit keen to cash in on a disillusioned asset before the window slams shut.

Finally, though it would hardly concern Wenger, signing the mercurial midfielder would really spice up the upper reaches of the Premier League. Arshavin is one of those rare players, in the mould of a Messi or Ribéry, who can routinely turn a game on its head – as evidenced by his stellar performances during Euro 2008; particularly in Russia’s comprehensive quarter-final defeat of Holland. Throughout that tournament, Wenger eulogised to all and sundry about the exceptional talents of the little man from Leningrad. Now is the time to give the tricky no.10 his big chance to make it in the West.

NO

Zenit want £20m payment in full, a deal which, given the standard Premier League practice of paying by instalments, would spectacularly shatter Wenger’s strict model of prudency. Arsenal’s record outright payment (Reyes cost £10m plus various add-ons) was the £13m acquisition of Sylvain Wiltord some eight years ago. Mid-season, while a new, young side is in its infancy is hardly the time for the ex-Monaco manager to abandon his famed principles.

And what of Ramsey and 17-year-old prodigy Jack Wilshere? Surely Arshavin’s arrival would curb their encouraging development, with first team opportunities at a premium – especially once Fabregas returns.

Even if a lavish outlay is forthcoming, Wenger must spend it in the right areas. As Bill Shankly used to say: “A football team is like a piano. You need eight men to carry it and three who can play the damn thing.” The potential addition of Arshavin to the Arsenal ranks may add another virtuoso player, but leaves them, still, with precious few carriers.

What Wenger most needs now, as most observers would surely agree, is a destructive element. Someone to sift through the dirty work; as Messrs Vieira, Petit and, latterly, Flamini did with such authority. A box-to-box player such as Barcelona’s Yaya Touré would fit the bill nicely. Mark Hughes apparently hopes to persuade the Ivorian to swap Camp Nou for Moss Side, but if any club might prise Kolo’s little brother away from the Catalans it would more likely be Arsenal. And, of course, there are many other, cheaper, alternatives. Arshavin’s Zenit team-mate Anatoliy Tymoshchuk would be one.

With ex-skipper William Gallas and Mickael Silvestre ruled out of action for the rest of the month, defensive recruits must now take priority – Matthew Upson is supposedly a key target.

As for the transfer target himself; between making his first-team debut at, curiously enough, Valley Parade (against Bradford City in the 2000 Intertoto Cup) and his influential role in Zenit’s UEFA Cup triumph last season, Arshavin made only a negligible impact on the football public’s consciousness. His star turns against Sweden and Holland during the Euros were impressive, it’s true, but the 27-year-old was notable by his absence during the Russians’ capitulation in the semi-final clash with Spain. In that game, it was Xavi, Iniesta and Arsenal’s own Fàbregas that shone, while Arshavin floundered.

Since that time, he has sulked his way through the remainder of the Russian League season, as potential summer moves to Spurs and Barcelona faltered at the negotiating stage. Zenit then fell through the Champions League trapdoor, with Arshavin failing to make an impression. His fleeting appearances in the competition this season would also rule him out of Arsenal’s challenge for European honours – their best remaining chance of major glory this term.

Should this gamble fail, Wenger’s apparent infallibility will be drawn under further scrutiny. Any departure from the policy of youth and shrewdness that has served the 59-year-old so well in his career cannot – and will not – be taken lightly.

Villans of the piece must exploit Cesc’s untimely absence

Upon end-of-season reflection, the hectic festive period is often mused upon as to where title, promotion and relegation battles were effectively won and lost. For high-flying Aston Villa in particular, their Boxing Day clash with fifth-placed Arsenal has the makings of a season-defining one.

At the season’s genesis many pundits had Villa pegged as the team most likely to head up the ‘Little 16’; trailing in some 10-20 points adrift of the all-conquering Big Four and being bloody well delighted about it too. What wasn’t supposed to happen was that Martin O’Neill’s men would not only be nipping at the ankles of the established Premier League superpowers, but actually going toe-to-toe with them in the apparently closed four-horse race for precious Champions League places.

But, of course, there can be no losers in such a race – which makes it so blindingly dull for supporters of the clubs not involved (i.e. the majority of football fans). For a fifth club, an upstart such as Everton or Tottenham in the recent past, to enter the pursuit makes it a race so much more entertaining to behold. This season, quite clearly, Aston Villa are the greatest threat to the monotonous quadropoly; lurking, as they do, in third place with virtually half the season done.

It is to be expected that Manchester United will return, victorious, from Japan hungry to make up the ground lost on their key rivals – few doubt that the World Champions will rejoin the top three sooner rather than later. Chelsea and Liverpool may be stuttering, but still hold a significant points advantage over the chasing pack. They, too, are both involved in what promises to be a fascinating title race for the long haul.

That, of course, leaves Arsenal – still suffering from a perplexing lack of consistency – as the team most likely to accede to the rise of the charging Villans. The general perception, at least outside of their plush Bodymoor Heath training complex, has been that the Birmingham club would take fifth place and a complimentary pat on the head as reward for their exciting brand of lightning-quick attacking football. Even as recently as last month – when their side crashed consecutively at home to Middlesbrough and away at St James’ Park – most Villa fans, still basking in a re-found pride in their club under the sound stewardship of Randy Lerner, would most certainly have accepted such a fate.

Yet, of late, the tide of opinion has turned. News yesterday of inspirational Arsenal playmaker Cesc Fabregas’ enforced absence through a medial ligament injury, while greeted with the apposite sympathy, has caused that tide to swell further. For Arsenal, already feather-light in central midfield, to lose their influential captain for the bulk of the remainder of the season is – in football terms at least – nothing short of a tragedy.

Sure, the young Spanish superstar has suffered from intermittent form this term – most likely as a direct result of losing stalwart engine room colleagues Gilberto Silva and, in particular, Mathieu Flamini. But his untimely withdrawal from the Ashburton Grove stage this week has rocked the foundations of an already restless side. Authentic on-field leadership is in short supply at the Emirates Stadium, as any casual observer of ex-skipper William Gallas will testify. Arsene Wenger now has an almighty task on his hands to galvanise his remaining troops for the mid-winter slog to come.

Focussing on the positives – and there are a few – in Denilson, Diaby and co, Wenger can call upon a selection of promising midfield players that most other top-flight clubs would love to call their own; a return to first team duties of fox-in-the-box Eduardo is approaching; and, most importantly of all, the January transfer window will slide satisfyingly open in just one week’s time. To salvage the Gunners’ season Wenger must bite the bullet and invest.

In this new era of so-called economic prudence – when we, the general public, are being urged to get out on the High Street and spend, spend, spend – to maintain the wonderful results of his young Villa squad, Martin O’Neill must now do the same. His late-summer splurge aside, the name of the game to date has been slow and steady progress at Villa Park. It’s a model which has served the ex-Celtic boss well.

However – and money-man Lerner would surely agree – it’s particularly rare that such an opportunity to make a seismic breakthrough arises in the all-too static environs of the Premier League. With Manchester City and, conceivably, Spurs waiting in the wings to challenge for European spots again next season (providing neither club is relegated of course) the time to strike is now. If Villa can preserve their new-found ruthless streak and overturn a Cesc-less Arsenal on Friday, they would surge six points clear of the Gunners. Not enough to seal a magical European odyssey right there on the spot, but a significant and tangible psychological blow to Wenger’s young side.

Whatever the result, it is patently clear that Villa’s current staff is lacking in the depth of quality required to feature prominently on three fronts in the season’s second half – a cursory glance at a bench featuring Zat Knight, Marlon Harewood and a bunch of raw youth-team prospects tells that story quite plainly. To support the free-scoring ways of Gabby Agbonlahor and Ashley Young; the midfield industry of Stillian Petrov and re-focused Gareth Barry; and the defensive solidity of Martin Laursen and Brad Friedel, one or two quality reinforcements will be required – particularly in the striking department.

It should not prove a difficult sell to encourage top talent from around the globe to a club so clearly on an upward curve. Should their abundantly generous American proprietor adhere, once more, to his policy of ‘speculate to accumulate’, Villa might yet dethrone one of English football’s four reigning kings.