What next for shattered Aston Villa?

Taken with archetypal Roman confidence, young Federico Macheda’s exquisite later-than-late goal at once re-established Manchester United’s dominance in the title race and thrust a dagger deep into the fading heart of Aston Villa’s season. In the second minute of stoppage time came the cruellest of blows – Villa’s hard-earned 2-1 advantage was finally overturned with a swaggering swish of the teenage Italian’s right boot. Was this the moment the Midlands side conceded defeat in the chase for fourth place?

Well, of course not. Publically, Martin O’Neill will not make a concession to that effect, but it’s been clear to all and sundry that Villa’s Champions League challenge faded quite some time ago. In taking the hotly-debated decision to rest a host of first-teamers for the difficult UEFA Cup 2^nd leg tie with CSKA Moscow, the Villa manager had on his hands a team that were no longer mildly-fatigued winners, rather dog-tired losers. The momentum which had been gradually building since Intertoto duty kicked off their season at the height of summer was irretrievably lost.

Round about this time too, a telling piece of TV production (occasionally it happens) highlighted the rising tide against which Villa’s tiring troops were battling. As the magical skills of Andrei Arshavin were beginning to re-ignite the Gunners’ waning goal-making - and taking - prowess following their lengthy lean patch in front of goal, the camera panned along the line of upcoming Arsenal returnees. Theo Walcott, Cesc Fabregas and Eduardo da Silva were all among a benchful of world class talent, each on the verge of a return from one long-term injury or other. It was an ominous signal that the North London club were ready to kick out of the stupor which had dogged their season.

Villa have quite patently been unable to compete with such impressive strength in depth, and understandably so; because they have not been party to continued Champions League ‘financial doping’ (a term Arsene Wenger used about mega-rich club owners such as Roman Abramovich having a distortive effect on the game, but which can easily be applied to the current Champions League cartel). The wafer-thin squad of the Second City side was supplemented only by Emile Heskey (who has unfortunately been largely MIA since his debut goal at Fratton Park) during the January transfer window. Rather than speculating to accumulate, O’Neill stuck steadfastly with his hand and subsequently went bust. At the time, it must be said, few fans complained about the lack of recruitment.

Successive defeats culminating in Sunday afternoon’s unlucky – if somehow inevitable; given United’s prodigious injury-time goalscoring record – loss at Old Trafford have again drawn a harsh light on the limitations of the squad. Without defensive lynchpin Martin Laursen, the back four – too often featuring Nigel Reo-Coker as a fish-out-of-water right-back and Mr Consistency Luke Young deputising for Freddie Bouma at left-back – has been sieve-like. The switch to 4-4-2 in order to accommodate their new England centre forward saw the counter-attacking menace of the previously preferred 4-5-1 significantly diluted.

For some time now, the more pragmatic Villa fan has been glancing down the table at surging Everton rather than dreaming of gate-crashing the Champions League party. The Toffees are one of the few clubs to have usurped the big four’s hegemony in the past decade and, led by the exceptional David Moyes – one of Martin O’Neill’s few equals or superiors in the Premier League – their recent form is enough to suggest that it is they that should now be favourites for fifth.

As the New Year rolled around and the tightly-packed table promised a dramatic conclusion to events at either end of the league, there was much talk of a refreshing shift in the static Premier League hierarchy – with Villa at the vanguard of the uprising. It looks unlikely now that such a change will transpire: United are probable champions; Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal cruise along behind. Even at the bottom, a previously intoxicating survival battle is fast losing its allure – at least for the neutral. It’s still possible (though unlikely, given Stoke’s outstanding home form) that the three promoted clubs could slip back into the Championship and the status quo would then be well and truly restored.

Following that logic, many would have pencilled in Everton and Villa battling it out for Europa League entry and so it has turned out. The two sides meet at Villa Park next week with the momentum inexorably in Everton’s corner. For Martin O’Neill’s men, the game has the feel of make or break – a defeat here would finally concede Villa’s dearly-held ‘best of the rest’ tag to the Merseysiders.

Gareth Barry’s future destiny again looms on the agenda like a long-feared dentist’s appointment – though let’s hope any ensuing saga doesn’t drag on as painfully as last summer’s snore-athon. This year, Stillian Petrov’s contribution to the Villans’ engine room has matched, even surpassed, that of the England star. Yet to lose their talisman – and longest-serving player – would be a shattering blow to the hopes of a club with fast-rising ambition. So far, progress under O’Neill’s guidance has been admirable. Whether or not the Ulsterman can now lead his team up another level will define the success, or otherwise, of his Villa Park reign.

What next for shattered Aston Villa?

Taken with archetypal Roman confidence, young Federico Macheda’s exquisite later-than-late goal at once re-established Manchester United’s dominance in the title race and thrust a dagger deep into the fading heart of Aston Villa’s season. In the second minute of stoppage time came the cruellest of blows – Villa’s hard-earned 2-1 advantage was finally overturned with a swaggering swish of the teenage Italian’s right boot. Was this the moment the Midlands side conceded defeat in the chase for fourth place?

Well, of course not. Publically, Martin O’Neill will not make a concession to that effect, but it’s been clear to all and sundry that Villa’s Champions League challenge faded quite some time ago. In taking the hotly-debated decision to rest a host of first-teamers for the difficult UEFA Cup 2^nd leg tie with CSKA Moscow, the Villa manager had on his hands a team that were no longer mildly-fatigued winners, rather dog-tired losers. The momentum which had been gradually building since Intertoto duty kicked off their season at the height of summer was irretrievably lost.

Round about this time too, a telling piece of TV production (occasionally it happens) highlighted the rising tide against which Villa’s tiring troops were battling. As the magical skills of Andrei Arshavin were beginning to re-ignite the Gunners’ waning goal-making - and taking - prowess following their lengthy lean patch in front of goal, the camera panned along the line of upcoming Arsenal returnees. Theo Walcott, Cesc Fabregas and Eduardo da Silva were all among a benchful of world class talent, each on the verge of a return from one long-term injury or other. It was an ominous signal that the North London club were ready to kick out of the stupor which had dogged their season.

Villa have quite patently been unable to compete with such impressive strength in depth, and understandably so; because they have not been party to continued Champions League ‘financial doping’ (a term Arsene Wenger used about mega-rich club owners such as Roman Abramovich having a distortive effect on the game, but which can easily be applied to the current Champions League cartel). The wafer-thin squad of the Second City side was supplemented only by Emile Heskey (who has unfortunately been largely MIA since his debut goal at Fratton Park) during the January transfer window. Rather than speculating to accumulate, O’Neill stuck steadfastly with his hand and subsequently went bust. At the time, it must be said, few fans complained about the lack of recruitment.

Successive defeats culminating in Sunday afternoon’s unlucky – if somehow inevitable; given United’s prodigious injury-time goalscoring record – loss at Old Trafford have again drawn a harsh light on the limitations of the squad. Without defensive lynchpin Martin Laursen, the back four – too often featuring Nigel Reo-Coker as a fish-out-of-water right-back and Mr Consistency, Luke Young, deputising for Freddie Bouma at left-back – has been sieve-like. The switch to 4-4-2 in order to accommodate their new England centre forward saw the counter-attacking menace of the previously preferred 4-5-1 significantly diluted.

For some time now, the more pragmatic Villa fan has been glancing down the table at surging Everton rather than dreaming of gate-crashing the Champions League party. The Toffees are one of the few clubs to have usurped the big four’s hegemony in the past decade and, led by the exceptional David Moyes – one of Martin O’Neill’s few equals or superiors in the Premier League – their recent form is enough to suggest that it is they that should now be favourites for fifth.

As the New Year rolled around and the tightly-packed table promised a dramatic conclusion to events at either end of the league, there was much talk of a refreshing shift in the static Premier League hierarchy – with Villa at the vanguard of the uprising. It looks unlikely now that such a change will transpire: United are probable champions; Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal cruise along behind. Even at the bottom, a previously intoxicating survival battle is fast losing its allure – at least for the neutral. It’s still possible (though unlikely, given Stoke’s outstanding home form) that the three promoted clubs could slip back into the Championship and the status quo would then be well and truly restored.

Following that logic, many would have pencilled in Everton and Villa battling it out for Europa League entry and so it has turned out. The two sides meet at Villa Park next week with the momentum inexorably in Everton’s corner. For Martin O’Neill’s men, the game has the feel of make or break – a defeat here would finally concede Villa’s dearly-held ‘best of the rest’ tag to the Merseysiders.

Gareth Barry’s future destiny again looms on the agenda like a long-feared dentist’s appointment – though let’s hope any ensuing saga doesn’t drag on as painfully as last summer’s snore-athon. This year, Stillian Petrov’s contribution to the Villans’ engine room has matched, even surpassed, that of the England star. Yet to lose their talisman – and longest-serving player – would be a shattering blow to the hopes of a club with fast-rising ambition. So far, progress under O’Neill’s guidance has been admirable. Whether or not the Ulsterman can now lead his team up another level will define the success, or otherwise, of his Villa Park reign.

Villans of the piece must exploit Cesc’s untimely absence

Upon end-of-season reflection, the hectic festive period is often mused upon as to where title, promotion and relegation battles were effectively won and lost. For high-flying Aston Villa in particular, their Boxing Day clash with fifth-placed Arsenal has the makings of a season-defining one.

At the season’s genesis many pundits had Villa pegged as the team most likely to head up the ‘Little 16’; trailing in some 10-20 points adrift of the all-conquering Big Four and being bloody well delighted about it too. What wasn’t supposed to happen was that Martin O’Neill’s men would not only be nipping at the ankles of the established Premier League superpowers, but actually going toe-to-toe with them in the apparently closed four-horse race for precious Champions League places.

But, of course, there can be no losers in such a race – which makes it so blindingly dull for supporters of the clubs not involved (i.e. the majority of football fans). For a fifth club, an upstart such as Everton or Tottenham in the recent past, to enter the pursuit makes it a race so much more entertaining to behold. This season, quite clearly, Aston Villa are the greatest threat to the monotonous quadropoly; lurking, as they do, in third place with virtually half the season done.

It is to be expected that Manchester United will return, victorious, from Japan hungry to make up the ground lost on their key rivals – few doubt that the World Champions will rejoin the top three sooner rather than later. Chelsea and Liverpool may be stuttering, but still hold a significant points advantage over the chasing pack. They, too, are both involved in what promises to be a fascinating title race for the long haul.

That, of course, leaves Arsenal – still suffering from a perplexing lack of consistency – as the team most likely to accede to the rise of the charging Villans. The general perception, at least outside of their plush Bodymoor Heath training complex, has been that the Birmingham club would take fifth place and a complimentary pat on the head as reward for their exciting brand of lightning-quick attacking football. Even as recently as last month – when their side crashed consecutively at home to Middlesbrough and away at St James’ Park – most Villa fans, still basking in a re-found pride in their club under the sound stewardship of Randy Lerner, would most certainly have accepted such a fate.

Yet, of late, the tide of opinion has turned. News yesterday of inspirational Arsenal playmaker Cesc Fabregas’ enforced absence through a medial ligament injury, while greeted with the apposite sympathy, has caused that tide to swell further. For Arsenal, already feather-light in central midfield, to lose their influential captain for the bulk of the remainder of the season is – in football terms at least – nothing short of a tragedy.

Sure, the young Spanish superstar has suffered from intermittent form this term – most likely as a direct result of losing stalwart engine room colleagues Gilberto Silva and, in particular, Mathieu Flamini. But his untimely withdrawal from the Ashburton Grove stage this week has rocked the foundations of an already restless side. Authentic on-field leadership is in short supply at the Emirates Stadium, as any casual observer of ex-skipper William Gallas will testify. Arsene Wenger now has an almighty task on his hands to galvanise his remaining troops for the mid-winter slog to come.

Focussing on the positives – and there are a few – in Denilson, Diaby and co, Wenger can call upon a selection of promising midfield players that most other top-flight clubs would love to call their own; a return to first team duties of fox-in-the-box Eduardo is approaching; and, most importantly of all, the January transfer window will slide satisfyingly open in just one week’s time. To salvage the Gunners’ season Wenger must bite the bullet and invest.

In this new era of so-called economic prudence – when we, the general public, are being urged to get out on the High Street and spend, spend, spend – to maintain the wonderful results of his young Villa squad, Martin O’Neill must now do the same. His late-summer splurge aside, the name of the game to date has been slow and steady progress at Villa Park. It’s a model which has served the ex-Celtic boss well.

However – and money-man Lerner would surely agree – it’s particularly rare that such an opportunity to make a seismic breakthrough arises in the all-too static environs of the Premier League. With Manchester City and, conceivably, Spurs waiting in the wings to challenge for European spots again next season (providing neither club is relegated of course) the time to strike is now. If Villa can preserve their new-found ruthless streak and overturn a Cesc-less Arsenal on Friday, they would surge six points clear of the Gunners. Not enough to seal a magical European odyssey right there on the spot, but a significant and tangible psychological blow to Wenger’s young side.

Whatever the result, it is patently clear that Villa’s current staff is lacking in the depth of quality required to feature prominently on three fronts in the season’s second half – a cursory glance at a bench featuring Zat Knight, Marlon Harewood and a bunch of raw youth-team prospects tells that story quite plainly. To support the free-scoring ways of Gabby Agbonlahor and Ashley Young; the midfield industry of Stillian Petrov and re-focused Gareth Barry; and the defensive solidity of Martin Laursen and Brad Friedel, one or two quality reinforcements will be required – particularly in the striking department.

It should not prove a difficult sell to encourage top talent from around the globe to a club so clearly on an upward curve. Should their abundantly generous American proprietor adhere, once more, to his policy of ‘speculate to accumulate’, Villa might yet dethrone one of English football’s four reigning kings.

Aston Villa 2008/09 Preview

2007/8 in a nutshell: Martin O’Neill’s second year at the Villa Park helm brought significant progress. A deserved 6th place Premier League finish resulted in qualification for the Intertoto Cup. An assessment of the style in which the Midlanders achieved their return to European competition can be gleaned from a glance at the goals for and against columns in the final league table – Villa outscored runners-up Chelsea (71), but conceded as many as 14^th placed Wigan (51). As many – Señor Benitez in particular – noticed, Gareth Barry was the driving force behind the revived Villans, but significant contributions from creator-in-chief Ashley Young and line-leading John Carew were paramount in fulfilling O’Neill’s blueprint of high-tempo, attacking football.

Summer Activity: A slow start to proceedings has given way, of late, to a rapid influx of predominantly defence-minded reinforcements. Though clearly nearing the end of a career defined by a rarely-paralleled consistency, Brad Friedel represents a definite improvement between the sticks following the confidence-drained Scott Carson. Compatriot Brad Guzan will provide Freidel’s competition. Steve Sidwell should prove a valuable addition once he can shake off the ring-rust accumulated during a wasted year at Stamford Bridge. Full-backs Luke Young and Nicky Shorey (recruited in the aftermath of Freddie Bouma’s awful injury) are solid if not spectacular signings and can expect to slot straight into the first XI. Acquiring, from Rangers, centre half Carlos Cuellar for a reasonable £7.8m fee could be key in O’Neill’s efforts to shore up a back four prone to the odd Zat Knight-mare or two. Departures: ever-reliable Olof Mellberg will be missed; Patrik Berger and Luke Moore less so. Oh, and apparently a tentative enquiry has been tabled about ex-captain Gareth Barry’s availability by an, as yet, unnamed 3^rd place-chasing Merseyside giant. You heard it here first.

Key Men: Barry, if he stays. Without Young’s set-pieces and tireless wingplay, Villa would struggle even to make an impression on the top 10. The ex-Watford man can expect to wriggle his way further into the plans of Fabio Capello if he can continue the rapid progress made during the past 18 months. Prospective new skipper Martin Laursen can continue to make an impact at both ends of the pitch. Friedel’s vast experience is sure to becalm an occasionally jittery defence; notwithstanding his excellent shot-stopping ability.

Rising Star: Nathan Delfouneso was one of the brightest stars of Villa’s run to last year’s Youth Cup semis. The 17-year-old Brummie offers a poacher’s presence and will hope to make a greater impact in the coming years than the now-departed Moore brothers, Stefan and Luke. He has been handed a place in the senior squad and the no. 14 shirt.

Manager: A canny operator in the transfer market, an astute tactician and with a passion for the role, O’Neill casts his recent Villa Park predecessors in the heaviest of shadows. The Ulsterman has once more given the Villa faithful a team of which to be proud and the natural progression would be to make a concerted challenge for silverware - at home or abroad. Of course, that is far easier said than done.

Prospects for 08-09: A repeat of last season’s exciting showing is desired; but Spurs’ expected rejuvenation and an improved Pompey squad will make finishing top of the Premier League’s unofficial second tier (5^th – 10^th) a tough old task. Progress in the cups has largely eluded Villa under Martin O’Neill’s reign, and they’ll harbour a not unreasonable hope of making a semi-final or two. A long UEFA Cup run though, may stretch the still under-staffed squad to breaking point.

Footballing World Prediction: 7^th