What next for shattered Aston Villa?

Taken with archetypal Roman confidence, young Federico Macheda’s exquisite later-than-late goal at once re-established Manchester United’s dominance in the title race and thrust a dagger deep into the fading heart of Aston Villa’s season. In the second minute of stoppage time came the cruellest of blows – Villa’s hard-earned 2-1 advantage was finally overturned with a swaggering swish of the teenage Italian’s right boot. Was this the moment the Midlands side conceded defeat in the chase for fourth place?

Well, of course not. Publically, Martin O’Neill will not make a concession to that effect, but it’s been clear to all and sundry that Villa’s Champions League challenge faded quite some time ago. In taking the hotly-debated decision to rest a host of first-teamers for the difficult UEFA Cup 2^nd leg tie with CSKA Moscow, the Villa manager had on his hands a team that were no longer mildly-fatigued winners, rather dog-tired losers. The momentum which had been gradually building since Intertoto duty kicked off their season at the height of summer was irretrievably lost.

Round about this time too, a telling piece of TV production (occasionally it happens) highlighted the rising tide against which Villa’s tiring troops were battling. As the magical skills of Andrei Arshavin were beginning to re-ignite the Gunners’ waning goal-making - and taking - prowess following their lengthy lean patch in front of goal, the camera panned along the line of upcoming Arsenal returnees. Theo Walcott, Cesc Fabregas and Eduardo da Silva were all among a benchful of world class talent, each on the verge of a return from one long-term injury or other. It was an ominous signal that the North London club were ready to kick out of the stupor which had dogged their season.

Villa have quite patently been unable to compete with such impressive strength in depth, and understandably so; because they have not been party to continued Champions League ‘financial doping’ (a term Arsene Wenger used about mega-rich club owners such as Roman Abramovich having a distortive effect on the game, but which can easily be applied to the current Champions League cartel). The wafer-thin squad of the Second City side was supplemented only by Emile Heskey (who has unfortunately been largely MIA since his debut goal at Fratton Park) during the January transfer window. Rather than speculating to accumulate, O’Neill stuck steadfastly with his hand and subsequently went bust. At the time, it must be said, few fans complained about the lack of recruitment.

Successive defeats culminating in Sunday afternoon’s unlucky – if somehow inevitable; given United’s prodigious injury-time goalscoring record – loss at Old Trafford have again drawn a harsh light on the limitations of the squad. Without defensive lynchpin Martin Laursen, the back four – too often featuring Nigel Reo-Coker as a fish-out-of-water right-back and Mr Consistency, Luke Young, deputising for Freddie Bouma at left-back – has been sieve-like. The switch to 4-4-2 in order to accommodate their new England centre forward saw the counter-attacking menace of the previously preferred 4-5-1 significantly diluted.

For some time now, the more pragmatic Villa fan has been glancing down the table at surging Everton rather than dreaming of gate-crashing the Champions League party. The Toffees are one of the few clubs to have usurped the big four’s hegemony in the past decade and, led by the exceptional David Moyes – one of Martin O’Neill’s few equals or superiors in the Premier League – their recent form is enough to suggest that it is they that should now be favourites for fifth.

As the New Year rolled around and the tightly-packed table promised a dramatic conclusion to events at either end of the league, there was much talk of a refreshing shift in the static Premier League hierarchy – with Villa at the vanguard of the uprising. It looks unlikely now that such a change will transpire: United are probable champions; Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal cruise along behind. Even at the bottom, a previously intoxicating survival battle is fast losing its allure – at least for the neutral. It’s still possible (though unlikely, given Stoke’s outstanding home form) that the three promoted clubs could slip back into the Championship and the status quo would then be well and truly restored.

Following that logic, many would have pencilled in Everton and Villa battling it out for Europa League entry and so it has turned out. The two sides meet at Villa Park next week with the momentum inexorably in Everton’s corner. For Martin O’Neill’s men, the game has the feel of make or break – a defeat here would finally concede Villa’s dearly-held ‘best of the rest’ tag to the Merseysiders.

Gareth Barry’s future destiny again looms on the agenda like a long-feared dentist’s appointment – though let’s hope any ensuing saga doesn’t drag on as painfully as last summer’s snore-athon. This year, Stillian Petrov’s contribution to the Villans’ engine room has matched, even surpassed, that of the England star. Yet to lose their talisman – and longest-serving player – would be a shattering blow to the hopes of a club with fast-rising ambition. So far, progress under O’Neill’s guidance has been admirable. Whether or not the Ulsterman can now lead his team up another level will define the success, or otherwise, of his Villa Park reign.